About Prediction Frontier

The independent home for prediction-markets news, research, education, and data.

What we are

Prediction Frontier is an independent media and research organisation focused on prediction markets — the platforms where contracts trade on the probability of future events. We publish original reporting, peer-reviewed research, open datasets, and a free curriculum, and we maintain the most-cited live tracker of prediction-market regulation worldwide.

We believe prediction markets are one of the most important new tools for aggregating dispersed information into prices the public can read. We also believe they are widely misunderstood — by regulators who have not yet decided how to treat them, by reporters who default to the gambling frame, and by readers who have been told that crypto solves it. Our job is to explain this category clearly, hold it to a high evidentiary standard, and do so from a perspective that is global by design.

Our story

Prediction Frontier was founded in 2026 in Nairobi by a small team of journalists, researchers, and engineers who had spent the previous two years writing about prediction markets in publications that did not have the space to cover them properly. Our first piece — a regulatory mapping paper for Kenya's CMA — was published the day the site went live. Since then we have grown to cover regulation across twelve jurisdictions, publish a quarterly state-of-the-market report, and maintain the open Calibration Dataset cited in academic and policy work worldwide.

The team

The people behind Prediction Frontier.

Team profiles will appear here once added in the admin.

Funding and transparency

An independent publication's credibility depends on its readers understanding where its money comes from. We publish our funding sources in full, updated annually.

Funder	Category	Amount	Notes
[Founding grant]	Foundation grant	$250,000	Three-year unrestricted operating grant
[Research partner]	Research collaboration	$75,000	Calibration dataset year-two
[Reader donations]	Individual donors	$18,400	Aggregated annual reader contributions

What our funders cannot do: No funder of Prediction Frontier may review, comment on, or request changes to editorial content before publication; instruct us not to cover a topic; be given advance notice of an editorial decision; or condition funding on editorial output. If a funder attempts to influence editorial decisions, we will decline the funding and disclose the attempt.

Full transparency page →

How we work

Five principles — they are the same five from the bottom of every methodology page on the site. They are the rules we hold ourselves to, written down.

Calibration over confidence.

We report in probabilities and ranges. We say "the market currently prices this at 62 per cent", not "this will happen." We update our views when the evidence changes. We publish corrections prominently and dated.

Independence, structurally enforced.

We do not accept advertising from, or any funding relationship with, any platform or operator we cover editorially. Our funders are published in full on our Transparency page. Our editorial and commercial teams are separated by design.

Open by default.

Our datasets, our methodologies, our editorial standards, and our decisions are published. Where we draw on proprietary data, we say so and explain its provenance.

Plain English.

We explain every technical term the first time it appears. The Glossary catches anyone who lands mid-article.

Globally fluent.

We do not import international data and call it African. We do not treat US developments as the only ones that matter. We build datasets across jurisdictions, commission research from local scholars, and hold every region to the same evidentiary standard.

Standards and corrections

Our editorial standards, conflict-of-interest register, and corrections log are published. To report an error, write to corrections@predictionfrontier.com. Substantiated corrections are published within 48 hours of verification, with a note at the top of the article and a full correction notice at the bottom.

Editorial standards →Conflicts of interest →Corrections log →

Get in touch

Department	What it's for	Email
Press & media	Interview requests, press kits, embargoed releases	press@predictionfrontier.com
Pitch a story	Reporters and contributors with story ideas	pitches@predictionfrontier.com
Research collaboration	Academic and institutional research partnerships	research@predictionfrontier.com
Policy desk	Regulators, policymakers, lawyers	policy@predictionfrontier.com
Data partnerships	Platforms interested in providing data	data@predictionfrontier.com
General enquiries	Anything else	hello@predictionfrontier.com