Regulation & Policy
Where the rules are being written — globally, and in the jurisdictions that matter most.
Global tracker
Hover or tap any country to see its prediction-market regulatory status.
Country Tracker
A live map of prediction-market regulation in every jurisdiction with a public determination.
United States of America
Regulated
Event contracts trade on CFTC-supervised designated contract markets. The CFTC withdrew its 2024 proposed rules in February 2026 and opened an advance notice of proposed rulemaking in March. It is also defending federal jurisdiction against state gambling enforcement, winning a preliminary injunction against Minnesota's ban in July 2026.
United Kingdom
Regulated
The Gambling Commission treats event contracts as gambling and has said it does not believe prediction markets can classify themselves as anything else. Serving British customers therefore requires a Commission licence rather than a financial authorisation.
France
Banned
The Autorite Nationale des Jeux treats prediction markets as unlicensed gambling and has taken enforcement action against platforms serving French users. Polymarket is among those blocked.
Brazil
Banned
A National Monetary Council resolution of 24 April 2026 prohibits derivatives tied to sporting, political, electoral, social, cultural and entertainment events. Anatel blocked 27 platforms including Polymarket and Kalshi, and the CVM was tasked with enforcement.
Nigeria
Permissive
No federal framework addresses event contracts, and domestic platforms are operating. Lagos State's Lotteries and Gaming Authority lists Gowagr, now trading as Bayse Markets, among unlicensed operators, so the pressure so far sits at state rather than national level.
South Africa
Permissive
No regulator has ruled on event contracts. The open question is whether they fall under the Financial Markets Act, whose section 3(2) disapplies gambling law to activity regulated under the Act, and the National Gambling Amendment Act remains unproclaimed.
Australia
Banned
The ACMA determined in August 2025 that Polymarket was a prohibited and unlicensed regulated interactive gambling service under the Interactive Gambling Act 2001. Access has been restricted since.
Singapore
Banned
The Gambling Regulatory Authority declared Polymarket illegal and blocked access on 12 January 2025, with penalties of up to S$10,000, six months imprisonment, or both. Singapore Pools remains the only licensed remote gambling operator.
United Arab Emirates
Unregulated
No UAE regulator has issued a determination on prediction markets. The General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority licence schedule does not cover them, VARA has issued no guidance, and Polymarket does not block UAE traffic.
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