Editorial and research standards
Updated 24 October 2026.
Prediction Frontier publishes reporting, research and market intelligence on prediction markets. These standards guide our editorial decisions and provide a basis for readers to question our work.
Sources and evidence
We distinguish reported facts, platform claims and our own analysis. Sources should be identified and linked where available. Announcements are attributed to the organisation making them; a press release alone does not establish that a product works as claimed. Uncertainty, estimates and material gaps in the evidence should be made clear.
Research and data comparisons
Analysis should state its observation period, venues, data sources, definitions and relevant limitations. Notional contract volume, dollars paid, open interest and order-book depth measure different things and should be labelled separately. Dollars paid are not a measure of net new capital entering a platform.
Cross-venue comparisons should explain differences in counting methods, products and market coverage. Wallet counts do not necessarily represent unique people. Market prices express implied probabilities at a particular time and can be affected by liquidity and market structure.
The methods and notes accompanying each report or chart govern its specific figures. Access to a third-party data source does not imply that Prediction Frontier has independently audited that source.
Commercial relationships and independence
Prediction Frontier may earn revenue from advertising, sponsorships, commissioned research, content partnerships and affiliate links. Our policy requires relevant commercial relationships to be disclosed alongside the affected work. Sponsored or commissioned material should be clearly identified, and affiliate links should carry a disclosure.
A client may agree a research brief and deliverables. Commercial support does not entitle a client or partner to dictate the conclusions of our independent reporting or research.
Corrections and responsibility
Send corrections or methodology questions to info@predictionfrontier.com, with the page link and supporting evidence. We review substantiated concerns. Material errors should be corrected with a dated explanation on the affected article or report; routine spelling and formatting fixes do not require a correction notice.
Prediction Frontier remains responsible for what it publishes, including work prepared with analytical or AI tools.