Prediction market resolution: settlement and disputes

A prediction market resolves when its rules are applied to the evidence and an outcome is recorded. Settlement is the resulting payout or accounting step. Knowing what happened in the world is only part of the process: the contract also specifies which evidence counts, the relevant deadline and who makes the determination.

This guide explains how to read those rules, why settlement can take time and how different dispute routes work. It covers standard binary contracts, with examples from Kalshi and the Polymarket documentation linked below. Special payout structures and Polymarket US contracts need their own rulebooks.

Sources checked: 20 October 2026. Start with our introduction to how prediction markets work if contract prices and binary outcomes are new to you.

Jump to: Rule checklist · The three stages · Platform processes · Two documented examples · Dispute evidence · Common questions

How to read prediction market resolution rules

Read the full rule text alongside the headline. Kalshi’s market rules guidance explains where to find the contract terms and outcome verification source. A useful reading checklist is:

1. Exact condition: What must happen for Yes to win? Notice differences between “announced”, “approved”, “takes office” and “begins operating”.
2. Deadline: Record the date, clock time and time zone. Check whether the rule concerns an event occurring by a deadline or a report being published by it.
3. Source: Identify the named agency, publication, data feed or decision maker. A screenshot from another service may describe the event without satisfying the contract.
4. Measurement: Check the location, units, rounding and whether preliminary or final data controls.
5. Exceptions: Look for postponement, cancellation, corrections, unavailable data and any alternative payout.
6. Process: Identify who determines the outcome, how to challenge it and which deadline applies.

Hypothetical example: a contract asks whether a regulator will approve a product by 30 June. A company announces that it has applied on 29 June; approval arrives on 2 July. An application and an approval are different events. If the rule specifically requires approval by 30 June, the application announcement does not meet that condition. This example illustrates reading a rule; it is not a determination of any live market.

Trading close, determination and settlement are different stages

Stage	What it means	What to check
Trading close	The contract stops accepting trades under its schedule.	The closing time does not necessarily establish the result.
Outcome determination or resolution	The required evidence is available and the designated process establishes the outcome.	The source, determination notice and any active challenge period.
Settlement or redemption	The result is reflected in a payout, balance or redeemable position.	The platform’s payout instructions and the contract’s payout formula.

Kalshi’s market FAQs explicitly distinguish closing from determination. Its outcomes guidance explains that determination depends on the contract and its source. A market awaiting an official release is not necessarily malfunctioning. Compare its status with the published rules before treating a delay as a dispute.

How Kalshi, UMA and Chainlink resolution differ

Process	Who or what establishes the result?	Reader’s next check
Kalshi	The exchange determines the result under the contract rules and named source.	Read the rules and determination; use the documented support route for a query.
Polymarket: UMA-resolved markets	A bonded proposal can be challenged. A second disputed proposal escalates to UMA’s token holder vote.	Find the proposal, evidence and challenge deadline.
Polymarket: Chainlink TWAP Up/Down markets	A defined price comparison determines the outcome.	Check the specified feed and time window.

Polymarket’s resolution documentation describes a two-hour challenge period after a UMA proposal. Challenging requires a counter-bond; this is a formal mechanism with money at risk. It is different from asking support to examine a page. Check the applicable process before attempting it. The same documentation describes an exceptional Unknown/50–50 result, with each token redeeming for $0.50.

Kalshi’s Request to Settle feature sends a request for the markets team to review. It does not establish a UMA-style vote or guarantee that a requested outcome will be adopted.

Two documented examples: price feeds and weather

Polymarket Up/Down: use the specified TWAP values

Under the current Chainlink TWAP resolution description, the start TWAP sets the price to beat and the end TWAP sets the final price, using the same stream. Equal or higher resolves Up; lower resolves Down. This route does not use UMA’s proposal-and-dispute process. A spot quote from another exchange cannot reproduce that comparison by itself.

Our August report on Polymarket’s TWAP change provides historical context. For a current contract, use its own specified feed, times and averaging window.

Kalshi weather: the source and station matter

Kalshi’s weather documentation distinguishes daily high/low markets, which use the final National Weather Service climate report, from hourly markets using The Weather Company. It includes a worked source lookup for a New York market dated 17 March 2025. A weather app showing a different figure is not, by itself, evidence of incorrect settlement.

For a daily market, check the named station and reporting day. NWS climate reporting uses local standard time, which matters during daylight saving time. For an hourly market, check the exact time and station coordinates in its rules. These are documented settlement examples, rather than allegations that either market was manipulated.

What to include in a settlement query or dispute

A useful evidence file lets another person repeat your reasoning. Keep:

• The market URL, identifier and exact outcome or strike.
• The relevant rule text, including any dated clarification.
• The named source’s URL or document, publication time and time zone.
• The specific passage, data point or calculation supporting your reading.
• The displayed status, proposal or determination you are questioning.
• A short explanation connecting the evidence to the rule, plus the applicable deadline.

Separate an interpretation disagreement from missing data, an apparent calculation error or a delayed payout. Each needs different evidence. Keep the original records; a cropped screenshot can omit the date, station, unit or qualification that explains the difference.

Regulatory complaints are another distinct route. Our Gibraltar regulation reference explains how to check an operator’s authorisation and the framework surrounding contract rules. Licensing status does not answer a particular contract’s factual question.

Common questions about prediction market settlement

Does a price close to $1 prove that a contract has resolved?

No. A trading price is different from a recorded determination. Check the platform’s outcome status and notice rather than inferring settlement from the last price.

Does a winning contract always mean a profit?

For a standard binary market, Polymarket’s help guide describes a winning share paying $1 and a losing share paying $0. Your net result also depends on what you paid and any applicable costs. Payout and profit are different quantities.

Does an ambiguous or cancelled event automatically refund my purchase price?

Do not assume that. Find the contract’s cancellation and exceptional-outcome terms. An alternative payout formula can produce a different amount from your entry cost.

Source note: Platform procedures can change. The linked official rules and documentation were checked on 20 October 2026; the specific contract terms remain the starting point for any live outcome question.