Gibraltar prediction market regulation: rules and fees
A primary-source guide to Gibraltar’s prediction market authorisation, contract rules, operator register, fees and cross-border limits.
Edwin Munyui · October 20, 2026 · 6 min read
Gibraltar’s prediction market framework raises several separate questions: which activity is permitted, which legal entity holds permission, what its contracts say and where its customers may participate. This reference brings the primary documents together so readers can check a regulatory claim against the relevant source.
Sources checked: 20 October 2026. This is a public-source reference for readers following the sector. An operator’s particular permissions, conditions and customer jurisdictions require their own checks.
Jump to: Timeline · Framework and contract rules · Operator register · Fees and duty · Cross-border access · Verification checklist · Primary sources
Gibraltar prediction market regulation: the 2026 timeline
On 31 March, Minister Nigel Feetham told Parliament that a prediction market licence had been issued under the existing legislation, while the new Gambling Act had not yet been brought into force. His speaking notes, published on 1 April, establish that historical sequence. They should not be read as the text of the later framework or proof of an operator’s present permissions.
| Date | Primary document | What to use it for |
|---|---|---|
| 31 March 2026 | Minister’s speaking notes | Contemporaneous government account of an early licence. |
| 13 July 2026 | Prediction Market Regulations 2026, LN 2026/176 | The framework, authorisation routes and contract requirements. |
| 13 August 2026 | Prediction Market (Fees and Duties) Regulations 2026, LN 2026/316 | The separate schedule of fees and duty. |
PF covered the July announcement in our report on Gibraltar’s new rules and summit plans. Use that article for the news context and the documents below for the legal provisions.
What the framework says about authorisation and settlement
The July regulations, made under the Gambling Act 2025, cover prediction market activity in or from Gibraltar. Compliant activity has a distinct status under that Act; it is not treated as betting, gaming or a lottery solely because it is prediction market activity.
- Permission: prediction market authorisation is distinct from a Part 4 licence. Regulations 6 and 33 also address existing licence holders and qualifying financial-services permissions; the scope of each permission matters.
- Contracts: regulation 12 permits Authority approval or certification under Authority-approved arrangements. This is not unrestricted self-certification.
- Settlement: regulation 13 requires approved contract rules covering objective settlement sources and settlement disputes.
- Safeguards: the rules address market integrity, participant disclosures, safeguarding and supervision. Regulation 22 accommodates digital asset payments, including stablecoins.
Reading point: authorisation of an operator, approval of a contract class and settlement of an individual contract are separate questions. For the mechanics of outcomes and challenges, see our prediction market resolution guide.
How to check an operator’s Gibraltar authorisation
The Gambling Division’s Prediction Market Register is the relevant starting point for named authorisation holders. The register entry located during this source check lists Predict Street Limited — PMA01 and Wire Alternative Markets Limited — PMA02. Those are legal entity names and authorisation references; they do not establish every condition or every country in which a branded product may be offered.
The register’s indexed entry was accessible during research, but direct retrieval of the page returned a service error. Recheck the live register and any published conditions before relying on a status. This page does not present the two entries as a complete, continuously updated list.
When comparing a platform website with a register, record the legal entity in the terms of service, the authorisation number and the exact permission claimed. If a business uses a different brand, ask for the document connecting that brand to the authorised entity. A conference appearance, partnership announcement or application announcement is not the same evidence as a regulatory entry.
Application fee, annual fee and prediction market duty
The separate August fees and duties regulations specify:
| Item | Amount or rate | Basis stated in the schedule |
|---|---|---|
| Application fee | £30,000 | Prediction market authorisation application. |
| Annual fee | £100,000 | Prediction market authorisation. |
| General prediction market duty | 0.15% | Commission charged; no exemption shown. |
The duty’s stated base is commission, so applying that rate to headline trading volume would answer a different question. For volume definitions and reporting caveats, see our prediction market statistics reference. The statutory schedule should not be treated as a complete operating budget or a statement of a participant’s tax position.
Does Gibraltar authorisation permit access in other countries?
Check the customer’s jurisdiction separately. Great Britain provides a concrete example: in its 4 February 2026 statement, the Gambling Commission said that commercial products meeting the local definition of gambling require its licence. Subject to the business model, it viewed current prediction market products as likely betting intermediaries. It also said operators without a Great Britain licence should not target or transact with consumers there.
That is the British regulator’s position, not a description of every country’s law. The practical implication is to test the product, entity and target market together. A Gibraltar permission should not be presented as a worldwide access guarantee.
A checklist for readers assessing a regulatory claim
- Identify the claim. Is it an application, approval in principle, issued permission, contract approval or current register status?
- Match the entity. Copy the company name and reference from the primary record, rather than relying on the brand alone.
- Date the evidence. Keep the announcement date, legal commencement date and latest status check separate.
- Read the product terms. Find the settlement source, challenge procedure and customer eligibility terms for the actual contract.
- Check the target jurisdiction. Look for the relevant local regulator’s position and any required permission.
For reporting and interviews, these checks produce more useful questions than asking whether prediction markets are simply “legal”. Which entity is authorised? For which activities? Under which conditions? How does the participant establish the outcome or challenge an error?
Primary sources and update scope
The official gambling legislation index links the parent Act and subsidiary instruments. The framework and fee pages checked for this reference displayed July and August 2026 documents respectively. Readers can consult the framework PDF and fee schedule PDF directly.
This reference should be checked again when legislation, register entries, permission conditions or relevant regulatory guidance change. It distinguishes the documentary record from PF’s reporting questions and explanatory examples.
Related jurisdiction references
Compare the separate evidence in PF’s Great Britain licensing reference, Nigeria/Lagos permit register guide and Kenya guide to the GRA, CMA and sandbox testing. Each explains its documentary scope; a permission in one jurisdiction does not establish permission in another.