Markets · Geopolitics & conflict
Geopolitics & conflict prediction markets turned over $118.8m across 2 venues in the last 30 days, up 612% on the prior period.
81 live contracts in this category.
All Geopolitics & conflict markets live data
Every venue we track, for the window you choose.
$118.8m
Total notional volume
+612.5% vs prior 30d
—
Prediction markets unique users
no prior period yet
—
Total market transactions
no prior period yet
$6,760
Total open interest
no prior period yet
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | $118.8m | 100.0% |
| Kalshi | — | — |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $6,760 | 100.0% |
| Polymarket | — | — |
Reported in US dollars: Polymarket. Not reported in US dollars: Kalshi — those venues are left out of the dollar totals rather than converted.
Last updated
- Polymarket30 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC · 15d ago
- Kalshi30 Oct 2026, 07:00 UTC · 15d ago
Today's top 10 geopolitics & conflict markets
Ranked by 24-hour volume where the venue reports it. Filters stay in the address, so the view can be shared.
| # | Market | Leading outcome | Volume | Open interest | Ends | Status | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | No 99.5% | $1.1m | — | 09 Nov 2026 | open | |
| 2 | Russia winsKalshiGeopolitics & conflict | Yes 98.0% | 899,814.92 contracts | $347,863 | 14 Nov 2026 | open | |
| 3 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | No 99.9% | 838,651.464 | — | 15 Sept 2026 | open | |
| 4 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | No 97.7% | $775,322 | — | 04 Nov 2026 | open | |
| 5 | US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | No 100.0% | $728,009 | — | 16 Nov 2026 | open | |
| 6 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | Yes 100.0% | $536,905 | — | 12 Oct 2026 | open | |
| 7 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | Yes 100.0% | $519,633 | — | 13 Oct 2026 | open | |
| 8 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | No 99.9% | 511,609.882 | — | 31 Aug 2026 | open | |
| 9 | Israel winsKalshiGeopolitics & conflict | No 87.0% | 468,949.01 contracts | $264,429 | 16 Nov 2026 | open | |
| 10 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?PolymarketGeopolitics & conflict | Yes 99.7% | $453,165 | — | 30 Sept 2026 | open |
1US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 8, 2026?
99.5% No · $1.1m
98.0% Yes · 899,814.92 contracts
3US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?
99.9% No · 838,651.464
4US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 3?
97.7% No · $775,322
5US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?
100.0% No · $728,009
6US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12?
100.0% Yes · $536,905
7US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?
100.0% Yes · $519,633
8US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?
99.9% No · 511,609.882
87.0% No · 468,949.01 contracts
10US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
99.7% Yes · $453,165