Argentina v Austria Matchday 2 World Cup Odds: Messi Looking To Break World Cup Goal Scoring Record
Matchday 2 Odds and Predictions on Polymarket and Kalshi
The knockout stages of the 2026 FIFA World Cup are taking shape. Several teams are looking to book their place in the Round of 32, with the top two seeds from each group and the best eight third-place finishers set to advance.
Following the qualifications of Germany, the USA, Mexico, and possibly the Netherlands, new contenders are fighting for the remaining 28 slots. In this round of fixtures, Argentina and France (2022 finalists) look to book their place in the next round, while Norway battle it out with Senegal, who won and lost on Matchday 1, respectively.
Argentina vs Austria, 8 p.m. GMT +3
Prediction markets have Argentina as strong favourites to win their match against Austria, currently trading at 67%. A hat-trick from their captain, Lionel Messi, in their opening group match against Algeria saw Argentina’s odds to win the tournament jump to 12%, making it the fourth favourite to win it all – behind France, Spain, and England.
Here’s where the markets are pricing the Argentina vs Austria matchup across Kalshi and Polymarket. Kickoff is at 8 p.m. GMT +3.
Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
Moneyline (Argentina) | 67% | 69% |
Moneyline (Draw) | 22% | 23% |
Moneyline (Austria) | 12% | 12% |
Both teams to score (Yes) | 48% | 48% |
Both teams to score (No) | 53% | 53% |
Total Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 75% |
Total Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 51% |
Spread (Argentina -2.5) | 40% | 22% |
Spread (Austria +2.5) | 61% | 79% |
Messi’s record-breaking hat-trick sees him as the second favourite to win the Golden Boot on Polymarket and Kalshi. Another sizzling performance from the current World Cup holders will see them advance to the knockout stages as group toppers.
Austria’s win over Jordan in the first group fixture places them in prime position to advance to the Round of 32, and a win could see them pip Argentina to top spot in Group J.
France v Iraq, June 23 00.00 GMT +3
In the second Group I matchup, France will be taking on Iraq on June 23 00.00 GMT +3 in Philadelphia. Here’s where the markets are pricing the France v Iraq matchup across Kalshi and Polymarket.
Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
Moneyline (France) | 91% | 90% |
Moneyline (Draw) | 7% | 8% |
Moneyline (Iraq) | 2.5% | 3% |
Both teams to score (Yes) | 33% | 33% |
Both teams to score (No) | 68% | 68% |
Total Over 1.5 Goals | 90% | – |
Total Over 2.5 Goals | 74% | – |
Spread (France -2.5) | 57% | – |
Spread (Iraq +2.5) | 44% | – |
Kylian Mbappe, France’s talisman and captain, looks to extend his red-hot goal-scoring form in the World Cup against Iraq. The 25-year-old is currently the favourite to win the Golden Boot at 26% after a dazzling performance against Senegal on Matchday 1, capped by a brace.
Iraq lost its first match at this World Cup to Norway as the Vikings proved too much to handle in a 4-1 thrashing. However, this World Cup is easily becoming a game of minnows, with “smaller teams” proving they can punch above their weight whenever called upon.
Norway v Senegal, 3.00 am GMT +3
In the second Group I game, Norway will take on the Lions of Teranga at 3.00 am GMT +3 in what is shaping up to be a thriller. Here is how the top prediction markets are pricing the matchup.
Market | Polymarket | Kalshi |
Moneyline (Norway) | 45% | 46% |
Moneyline (Draw) | 28% | 26% |
Moneyline (Senegal) | 29% | 28% |
Both teams to score (Yes) | 57% | 58% |
Both teams to score (No) | 44% | 43% |
Total Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | – |
Total Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | – |
Spread (Norway -2.5) | 9% | – |
Spread (Senegal +2.5) | 92% | – |
Erling Haaland, Norway’s striker, marked his first World Cup appearance with two goals against Iraq and is looking to extend his scoring against Senegal. The recently crowned and deposed champions of Africa will, however, have a point to prove if they are to get to the knockout stages.
Senegal had a strong showing in the first half against France, missing a couple of clear-cut chances to score, before Mbappe took matters into his own hands. The second-half showing against France should be quickly forgotten, as Head coach Pape Thiaw believes his team will come into the Norway match “prepared to win”.
With all teams in the group still in contention to get to the next round, a loss for Senegal on Monday, combined with at least a point for France against Iraq, would eliminate them from advancing to the knockout round.