Group D Matchday 3 Odds: Australia vs Paraguay — One Knockout Ticket Left, Possibly 2?

Key Takeaways

• The USA are confirmed Group D winners at 100% on both Polymarket and Kalshi — their tournament winner odds have risen from 1.6% pre-tournament to 5.3% on Kalshi after back-to-back wins, the biggest market move of any team through Matchday 2.

• Australia (3 pts, 0 GD) needs only a draw to qualify for the Round of 32 — but Kalshi prices the draw at 43%, the highest draw probability on tonight's entire six-game slate. Paraguay must win and accept nothing else.

• Turkey has attempted 61 shots in this tournament without scoring a single goal — a record for most shots in a World Cup without a goal. Arda Güler has provided the creativity. The finishing has not followed. Tonight against the USA is a statistical anomaly waiting to resolve itself one way or another.

Group D produced two memorable early storylines. Folarin Balogun's first-half brace in the USA's 4-1 demolition of Paraguay made him the first American to score multiple World Cup goals since 1930. Australia upset Türkiye 2-0 — coach Tony Popović controversially dropping captain Mathew Ryan for young goalkeeper Patrick Beach. Türkiye then set an unwanted record: 32 shots against Paraguay without scoring, with Miguel Almirón becoming the first player sent off under FIFA's new mouth-covering prohibition. Türkiye's elimination was confirmed. The USA sealed first. Tonight, one game is a dress rehearsal, the other is a knockout.

Group D — Standings After Matchday 2

All Matchday 3 fixtures kick off simultaneously at 10 PM ET on June 25.

Paraguay vs Australia — 10 PM ET, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

What It Means

Australia needs a draw or a win. Paraguay needs a win, full stop. A draw at Levi's Stadium sends the Socceroos to the Round of 32 on goal difference and eliminates Paraguay. The market reflects the resulting near-deadlock — Kalshi prices the draw at 43%, making this the most evenly contested match on tonight's six-game slate. Both teams have scored and conceded in equal measure across two games, averaging just one goal per match each.

Despite a draw being sufficient for them, Australia enters the match as the underdog, with Paraguay expected to grind out a win. The Socceroos enter the match with more motivation to defend than to attack. Nestory Irankunda's pace in behind and Connor Metcalfe's ability to arrive from midfield late are the Socceroos' two most productive attacking mechanisms. Australia's qualification odds sit at 89% on Kalshi — built on the structural advantage of needing only a point in a game where Paraguay needs all three.

Paraguay is the more dangerous attacking side on current form. Their Matchday 2 win over Türkiye — unconvincing but effective — gave them tournament energy. The absence of midfielder Miguel Almirón (suspended following his red card, the first in history under FIFA's new mouth-covering protocol) hurts their press and transitions. Coach Daniel Garnero must find a creative outlet to unlock an Australian defence that has conceded only twice across two games. Paraguay's Kalshi odds to reach the Round of 32 sit at 85% — priced as the favourite despite having identical points to Australia.

As it stands, Paraguay could book a place in the Round of 32, to face Group E winner Germany, with Australia facing Iran in their matchup in the first round of the knockout stage. 

Türkiye vs USA — 10 PM ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California

What It Means

This is a dead rubber in points terms but not in narrative terms. Türkiye — having taken 61 shots across two World Cup matches without scoring a single goal — play their final group game against a USA side whose market price to win the tournament has tripled from pre-tournament. USA coach Mauricio Pochettino told the press: "We want to end the group stage with a victory." Kenan Yıldız responded for Türkiye: "We want to go out with pride."

The most interesting line in this match is not the moneyline but Türkiye's team total. Kalshi prices Türkiye over 0.5 goals at 34% — meaning there is a 66% chance they go through the entire group stage without scoring. Türkiye has produced 61 tournament shots' worth of creativity for zero goals. The finishing inefficiency is historic. USA's Pulisic, Balogun, and Reyna are expected to rotate, but the co-host's attack has scored six goals in two games. Even a rotated USMNT against Turkey's conversion crisis points firmly toward another clean sheet for Pochettino's side.

The USA's path in the Round of 32: as Group D winners, they face the best third-place team from Groups B, E, F, I, or J. At 5.3% to win the tournament on Kalshi — up from 1.6% pre-tournament — the market is buying the USA's draw as a potential sleeper pick in the knockout rounds. Playing their Round of 32 fixture on home soil remains a significant factor that the markets have already moved to reflect.

📺 Watch us break down the Group D scenarios live tonight — including how the USA market has moved since Matchday 1 and what Australia vs Paraguay means for prediction market traders watching the third-place qualification picture. Follow at youtube.com/@PredictionFrontier.

Odds sourced from Polymarket and Kalshi as of June 25, 2026. Markets are live and updated in real time. Prediction Frontier is Africa's first prediction markets association — building a trusted prediction markets ecosystem in the Global South.