Kalshi Hits $40 Billion as Prediction Markets Break Another Record
Kalshi’s $40B valuation, record prediction-market trading, the NBA’s integrity safeguards and Europe’s regulatory question in this week’s PF Weekly.
Kalshi raised another $1 billion this week at a $40 billion valuation, up from $22 billion in May.
The company’s latest Series G funding round, co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, brings its valuation to eight times the $5 billion reported in October 2025.
Kalshi also disclosed that its non-sports businesses now generate over $1 billion in annualised revenue. Its institutional business is also growing, with approximately 500 entities trading on the exchange in September.
The valuation comes amid ongoing regulatory disputes, suggesting investors are increasingly confident in Kalshi's long-term prospects. Whether that confidence reflects expectations of favourable regulatory outcomes or a broader conviction that prediction markets are here to stay remains an open question.
October Is Another Record Month
Trading activity provides some context for the latest valuations.
Our Prediction Frontier Markets dashboard, using Dune data through October 25, shows $115.8 billion in notional volume, up 61.5% against the preceding 30-day period. Transactions reached 610.8 million, an increase of 37%.
However, unique users declined 2% to 443,304, while open interest fell 5.2% to approximately $2 billion over their respective comparison periods.
The figures suggest trading activity is growing faster than participation. Existing traders may be generating more volume, although the aggregate data alone cannot establish how much of the increase comes from more frequent trading.
It is a distinction worth tracking as the industry continues setting volume records.
The NBA, Kalshi, Polymarket and Market Integrity
Another interesting development this week is the NBA naming Kalshi and Polymarket its preferred prediction-market exchanges, granting both platforms access to official league data, intellectual property and marketing rights.
The agreements also introduce restrictions on permissible markets, prohibit league and team personnel from trading NBA event contracts, and require information sharing around suspicious activity.
Separately, the NBA signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC on integrity oversight.
Beyond the commercial agreements, the interesting development is the league's role in determining which markets can be offered. The NBA retains approval rights over permissible contracts, giving it direct influence over market design.
This raises a question about how responsibility should be divided between sports leagues, exchanges and regulators.
Whether this arrangement becomes a wider model for sports prediction markets will depend partly on how effectively the restrictions and monitoring obligations work in practice.
Who Regulates? The European Question
Regulatory approaches remain fragmented outside the US. Gibraltar has established a dedicated framework for prediction markets, while Britain, Germany and the wider EU apply different legal classifications and restrictions.
Our latest analysis, Prediction Market Regulation in Europe: Can Gibraltar Offer a Model?, examines whether Gibraltar's approach can offer a workable framework for operator authorisation, contract approval and participant protection.
The discussion comes ahead of Prediction Markets Summit Europe, taking place on 9–10 November at Sunborn Gibraltar, organised by Eventus International.
Prediction Frontier is an official media partner. The summit provides an opportunity to examine how operators and regulators can establish clearer rules as the industry expands.