2026 US Midterm Prediction Markets Video
Watch how Kalshi and Polymarket priced the 2026 US midterms, where $2 billion traded and how $794 million changed hands in a 24-hour stretch.
In 3 minutes and 31 seconds, Prediction Frontier traces how the odds moved and when traders put money behind them. Kalshi priced Democratic control of the House and Senate at 99% about two hours before NBC News called each chamber.
Kalshi and Polymarket traded $2 billion in midterm contracts from 5 January to 4 November. The 24 hours from 4pm Eastern on election day accounted for $794 million. On Kalshi, the Texas Senate race traded $187 million, more than the $115 million market for control of the Senate.
The video also looks at the largest Polymarket positions, how the Senate market deepened and how stock perpetuals reacted overnight. Read our full 2026 US midterms prediction markets report for the charts, data and methodology, or watch on YouTube.