Coinbase prediction markets top $200M in annualised revenue

Coinbase says its prediction-market business has surpassed $200 million in annualised revenue, adding a financial measure of the product’s growth alongside the trading-volume figures more commonly reported across the sector.

The disclosure comes from the company’s 29 October third-quarter earnings release. Coinbase also reported daily prediction-market traders growing more than 60% quarter over quarter and revenue achieving 82% quarterly compound growth since launch.

What the annualised figure measures

Coinbase’s earnings deck defines the milestone using quarterly annualised net revenue for the most recent qualifying quarter. It should not be read as $200 million earned during Q3 or as revenue already collected over a full year.

The presentation defines daily traders as users who executed a prediction-market trade, averaged over the measurement period. It does not provide the absolute daily-trader count on the prediction-markets slide.

Coinbase attributed growth through slower sports months partly to non-sports categories and recurring contracts, including crypto volatility. It also said prediction-market users were generating incremental spot-trading volume.

Clearing remains part of the product roadmap

The deck lists a new prosumer product, Coinbase One integration and event hubs among its next steps. It also says Coinbase is working towards USDC-native, in-house clearing and end-to-end infrastructure to improve economics.

Those are plans, rather than confirmation that prediction-market activity has already moved to an internal clearing operation. PF previously covered Coinbase’s clearinghouse registration; regulatory approval and implementation for a particular product are separate milestones.

The earnings materials do not establish prediction-market profitability or give an implementation date for the clearing roadmap. Revenue growth alone cannot show how much remains after exchange fees and other costs.

For another distributor’s financial disclosure, see PF’s report on Robinhood’s Q3 prediction-market revenue. Comparisons need consistent periods and revenue definitions: an annualised figure and a reported quarterly amount are different measures.