
Neville Munjogu
Analyst
Prediction markets are more than trading venues—they are living systems where information, incentives, and probability converge. My work is driven by understanding how these systems evolve and what they reveal about markets, technology, and decision-making. As an Analyst at Prediction Frontier, I research the forces shaping the prediction markets ecosystem, from platform design and market structure to liquidity, regulation, and participant behavior. Drawing on more than four years of experience in cryptocurrency and Web3, together with a year dedicated to prediction markets, my goal is to deliver objective, well-researched coverage that helps readers better understand the prediction economy while contributing to informed discussions around its development. I approach every topic with a commitment to clarity, evidence, and intellectual curiosity. Whether unpacking market mechanics or examining emerging trends, my goal is to help readers move beyond the headlines and develop a deeper understanding of the prediction economy.
Articles by Neville Munjogu
25 pieces
Polymarket announces NFA approval for PM Derivatives
NFA records show FCM registration on 30 October, but list the broker as inactive. Polymarket says positions will be fully collateralised.

CRSHMARKET raises $3.5M for livestream prediction markets
6th Man Ventures reportedly led the seed round for a Monad-powered platform where viewers predict what happens next in live content.

Ballon d’Or owner prepares complaint over Polymarket bets
Groupe Amaury is preparing a complaint over suspected leaks and Polymarket betting, AFP reports. Wallet patterns have not established wrongdoing.

Aries launches ForecastEx prediction markets ahead of US midterms
Aries Mobile adds election, economic and financial contracts through ForecastEx. Separate accounts are required, while API and MCP access remain planned.

Coinbase prediction markets top $200M in annualised revenue
Coinbase reports over $200 million in annualised prediction-market revenue, growing daily traders and plans for USDC-native in-house clearing.

76ers name Kalshi prediction-market partner in multiyear deal
The Philadelphia 76ers named Kalshi their official prediction-market partner, announcing fan programmes and a SEPTA activation after the NBA’s league deal.

Kalshi raises $1 billion at $40 billion valuation
Wellington and Sequoia co-led Kalshi's Series G. The financing comes as the company expands beyond event contracts and reports non-sports revenue.

Predict.fun delays PREDICT token generation and Season 1 claims
Predict.fun has postponed PREDICT token generation and Season 1 claims alongside Binance Alpha and Spot trading. No revised claim time is confirmed.

Saquon Barkley says NFL rules forced his Polymarket exit
Barkley told Front Office Sports he left his Polymarket investment because of NFL rules. The report does not identify when he divested or on what terms.

Robinhood’s prediction-market revenue reaches $173 million in Q3
Robinhood reported $173 million in Q3 event-contract revenue and 16.4 billion contracts traded, while Rothera passed a $100 million annualised revenue rate.

Rothera names seven executives after 6 billion contracts
Rothera announces seven executive hires and promotions across risk, compliance and technology after reporting 6 billion cumulative contracts traded.
Nasdaq seeks CFTC approval for inflation prediction markets
Nasdaq MRX Futures proposes headline and core CPI prediction markets paying $100 or $0. Its CFTC exchange application remains pending.

OG.com sets out combo market-maker incentive programme
OG.com’s filing sets out incentives for combo market makers, with an October 23 effective date and no change to taker fees.
Crypto.com, OG.com Partner With River Markets to Expand Institutional Prediction Markets Access
An October 20 MoU would connect River Markets’ prime brokerage with OG.com’s regulated event contracts and Crypto.com Exchange liquidity. Here is what it means—and what remains unproven.
Coinbase Adds CFTC-Registered Clearinghouse for Derivatives
Coinbase adds a CFTC-registered clearinghouse to its existing derivatives exchange and brokerage infrastructure.
Raven Funding: Coinbase Ventures, CMCC and a $90M Valuation
Coinbase Ventures and CMCC Global back Raven at a $90M pre-money valuation as the trading firm expands liquidity provision across prediction markets.
Underdog Uses Eventus Validus for Market Surveillance
Underdog uses Eventus Validus to monitor its prediction-market exchange, with configurable alerts and surveillance designed to scale across its markets.
Underdog Expands Consumer Protection With Birches Health Partnership
Underdog is expanding its consumer protection efforts by connecting users with specialized gambling disorder education and treatment through Birches Health.
CFTC Mention-Market Advisory: Manipulation and Contract Rules
The CFTC’s mention-market advisory addresses manipulation risks, contract design and safeguards that designated contract markets should consider.

Gemini and Apex Plan Crypto Event Contracts for Brokerages
A Gemini–Apex letter of intent would bring crypto event contracts to brokerage customers, using Gemini’s exchange and clearing infrastructure.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Amid New York Lawsuit
The CFTC has ordered KalshiEX to continue operating under federal derivatives rules as the exchange faces a legal challenge from New York.

Polymarket Ditched Single-Price Settlement for TWAP — Here's What Changed for Traders
On August 7, 2026, Polymarket's crypto up/down markets stopped resolving on a single price snapshot. Here's what a TWAP is, why Polymarket needed one, and what actually changed for anyone trading these markets.
STX Deploys Eventus Validus for Event-Contract Surveillance
STX has deployed Eventus Validus as it prepares an event-contract exchange and clearing platform, with its CFTC applications still pending at publication.

Kinetic Markets Selects Solidus Labs for FCM Surveillance
Kalshi’s FCM affiliate Kinetic Markets selects Solidus Labs for surveillance ahead of institutional margin accounts, subject to relevant regulatory approvals.

Rothera Deploys Eventus Validus for Event-Contract Surveillance
Rothera deploys Eventus Validus and Frank AI for surveillance as its event-contract exchange expands fully collateralised and margin products.