How Genius Sports earns from prediction markets before and after a trade

Genius Sports chief executive Mark Locke described three ways the sports-data company earns from prediction markets on its 5 November earnings call. Genius helps operators acquire customers, supplies data to firms pricing contracts and provides official results that exchanges use to settle trades. Its third-quarter earnings release identifies the sector as a growth opportunity, while the public call transcript gives more detail on the business.

Before the trade, operators pay to reach customers

Genius launched Prediction.com through Legend in September. It lets visitors compare markets and sends them to venues to trade. Genius’ August agreements with Kalshi and Polymarket also describe marketing through Legend’s properties. The public announcements establish where customer acquisition fits in the relationship. They leave the amount and basis of compensation undisclosed. Kalshi agreement · Polymarket agreement

During a trade, the data customer can be a market maker

Locke said Genius supplies data to institutional market makers that quote sports contracts. These firms use live information to update their prices as a game unfolds. That gives Genius a customer base beyond the exchanges. Data licensing and trading exposure are also different businesses. Genius’ earnings release separately identifies providing liquidity on prediction markets and potential trading or market-making losses among its risks. It gives no standalone figures for that activity. Earnings release · Call transcript

At settlement, the source of the result matters

Genius’ August Polymarket announcement says its official data will determine outcomes for covered sports contracts. That is a separate use from helping firms quote prices before the result is known. The announcement describes covered sports and services. It does not establish that Genius settles every sports contract across Polymarket’s US and international platforms. Polymarket agreement

Sportradar’s Q3 disclosures also identify demand from prediction-market exchanges, brokers and market makers. The two disclosures show where suppliers can earn as the same sports event moves from discovery to trading to settlement. They leave open how much each service contributes. To compare the economics, readers would need separate prediction-market revenue and margins, contract terms, and trading profit or loss where suppliers commit their own capital.