Kalshi adds sector KPI markets using Carbon Arc data

Kalshi has launched sector KPI prediction markets that track business activity across industries, with contracts settling against Carbon Arc’s Prisms data.

The October 23 announcement identifies credit-card spending, point-of-sale spending, foot traffic and app downloads among the metrics covered. It extends Kalshi’s existing company-level KPI contracts to industry-wide measures.

Spending and download contracts

Kalshi’s Sector Trends page, reviewed for this report, lists markets on AI and streaming-app downloads, fast-food card spending, big-box retail card spending and energy-drink point-of-sale spending.

One AI app-download market asks whether the October 2026 array index will exceed specified levels. Its subject is a measured download index, not the share price of an AI company.

Kalshi says the sector contracts are available through its website and mobile app.

What the reference data measures

Carbon Arc’s Prisms reference page describes daily indices and shares derived from its data panels. Measures can show growth against the corresponding period a year earlier or a share within a defined group.

The provider says its panels use consistent samples of real behaviour and do not capture every transaction. Its description of a prism index uses an equal-weighted average, rebased to a reference month.

Those definitions matter when reading a contract: a published index level is a specified measure, rather than a count of every transaction in an industry.

Kalshi presents the products as potential tools for managing business exposure. Its launch announcement does not establish actual hedging use or hedge effectiveness.

The launch is separate from Kalshi’s new S&P DJI agreement, which covers index licensing and proposed indices built from prediction-market prices.