Parlays made up 49% of Novig’s 30-day trading volume

Parlays accounted for $1.68 billion of the $3.46 billion in notional volume on Novig from 13 October to 11 November. Prediction Frontier counted each execution once across 30 of Novig’s daily trade files. Straight trades made up the remaining $1.78 billion.

Fortune’s 13 November profile cited a $1.8 billion 30-day estimate from The PM Pulse and Aldrin. The profile says that series excludes combos. Our straight-trade total rounds to the same figure, although the exact cut-off for Fortune’s estimate remains unverified. The PM Pulse’s scoreboard uses its own venue coverage and combines Polymarket US and Polymarket’s international platform in its ranking.

Both sides of Novig’s sports business grew

In the previous 30 days, from 13 September to 12 October, Novig’s daily totals add up to $2.18 billion, with $1.14 billion in straight trades and $1.04 billion in parlays. Overall volume rose 59% between the two windows. Straight trades and parlays each accounted for about half of the increase, and the parlay share edged up from 47.6% to 48.6%.

The mix looks different in dollars staked by the side that initiated each trade. Takers put $92.7 million into parlays, or 9.6% of the $968.1 million they staked across both types of trade before fees. Per dollar of potential payout, takers staked about 5.5¢ on parlays and 49.2¢ on straight trades, weighted by contract quantity. The figures cover taker stakes on executed trades. Maker stakes and exchange fees are separate.

What the trade files can tell us

In September, we tracked the jump in searches for Novig after its Sydney Sweeney campaign. Novig later told Fortune that first-time deposits rose 362% in the 30 days after the ad launched compared with the preceding 30 days. The trade files extend that picture with executed activity. Their anonymous rows leave open how many customers the campaign brought in and how many kept trading.

Method. We used Novig’s trade-file definitions to sum the quantity on taker rows, with one dollar of notional for each contract. We grouped multi-leg executions using the exchange’s COMBO label and checked the results against its daily table. We used the daily table for the earlier comparison window. Notional uses the full $1 face value of each contract. The cost field measures what one side staked before fees.