Markets
Prediction markets traded $20.4B in notional volume in the seven days to 25 September 2026, up 11% on the previous seven days.
1,000 contracts tracked across 2 synced venues.
All prediction markets live data
Source: Dune · figures to 25 Sep 2026 (UTC) · How we measure this
$20.4bn
Total notional volume
+10.9% vs prior 7d
167,702
Prediction markets unique users
+1.1% vs prior 7d
122,764,997
Total market transactions
+7.7% vs prior 7d
$2.1bn
Total open interest
+1.4% vs prior 7d
- Kalshi
- Polymarket US
- Polymarket
- Crypto.com
- Predict
- Limitless
- Other
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $15.5bn | 76.2% |
| Polymarket US | $2.6bn | 12.9% |
| Polymarket | $1bn | 4.9% |
| Other | $557.3m | 2.7% |
| Crypto.com | $521.2m | 2.6% |
| Predict | $141.6m | 0.7% |
| Limitless | $5.2m | 0.0% |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 120,609 | 71.9% |
| Predict | 40,331 | 24.0% |
| Other | 5,804 | 3.5% |
| Limitless | 958 | 0.6% |
| Kalshi | — | — |
| Polymarket US | — | — |
| Crypto.com | — | — |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 87,917,980 | 71.6% |
| Polymarket US | 18,893,785 | 15.4% |
| Polymarket | 9,530,041 | 7.8% |
| Predict | 4,949,159 | 4.0% |
| Other | 1,425,835 | 1.2% |
| Limitless | 48,197 | 0.0% |
| Crypto.com | — | — |
| Venue | Value | Share of total |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | $1.4bn | 66.9% |
| Polymarket | $350m | 16.7% |
| Polymarket US | $276.4m | 13.2% |
| Other | $55.6m | 2.7% |
| Predict | $11.7m | 0.6% |
| Limitless | $333,793 | 0.0% |
| Crypto.com | — | — |
- Contracts count at $1 face value; unique users cover on-chain venues only.
The Daily Frontier Brief
The numbers on this page, in your inbox at 7am ET.
The numbers on this page, in your inbox each morning. Free, unsubscribe whenever.
Kalshi vs Polymarket vs others
Source: Dune · 19–25 Sep 2026 (UTC)
| Kalshi | $15.5bn | 76.2% | +8.4% | $1.4bn | $176.60 | — |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket US | $2.6bn | 12.9% | +30.1% | $276.4m | $138.71 | — |
| Polymarket | $1bn | 4.9% | −3.6% | $350m | $105.68 | 120,609 |
| Other | $557.3m | 2.7% | +16.5% | $55.6m | $390.86 | 5,804 |
| Crypto.com | $521.2m | 2.6% | +43.4% | — | — | — |
| Predict | $141.6m | 0.7% | +6.2% | $11.7m | $28.62 | 40,331 |
| Limitless | $5.2m | 0.0% | −45.6% | $333,793 | $108.71 | 958 |
Hedge calculator
BetaPick an exposure, see the contracts that price it, and what cover costs today.
No exposures are published yet. Once our desk publishes one in the risk map below, it appears here with the contracts that price it.
Frontier metrics
Polymarket's top ten contracts hold 11.4% of measured volume.
Concentration index
HHI = Σ (contract volume ÷ venue volume)² × 10,000, over the venue's 1,000 largest contracts by reported 24-hour dollar volume. Top-10 share = volume of the 10 largest contracts ÷ venue volume.
| Venue | Contracts measured | HHI | Top 10 share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 1,000 | 29 | 11.4% |
| Kalshi | 0 | — | — |
Cite this: Prediction Frontier, read 27 Sept 2026 — https://predictionfrontier.com/markets#concentration-index
Attention rotation
New listings = contracts first seen by our sync on each UTC day. Volume share = category dollar volume ÷ all-category dollar volume, this 7-day rollup against the rollup one week earlier.
| Category | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unassigned | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-14 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-15 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-16 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-17 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-18 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-19 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-20 | 986986 new contracts on 2026-09-21 | 33 new contracts on 2026-09-22 | 33 new contracts on 2026-09-23 | 77 new contracts on 2026-09-24 | 11 new contracts on 2026-09-25 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-26 | 0 new contracts on 2026-09-27 | 1,000 |
Volume share by category, week over week
No contracts have been mapped to a category yet, so category volume share cannot be computed.
Cite this: Prediction Frontier, read 27 Sept 2026 — https://predictionfrontier.com/markets#attention-rotation
Calibration scorecard
Brier score = mean of (price 24 hours before resolution − outcome)², where outcome is 1 if the event happened and 0 if it did not. Lower is better; 0.25 is the score of always saying 50%.
We have 1 resolved contract with a recorded price 24 hours before settlement. A calibration score needs at least 30 before it means anything, so no figure is shown yet.
Cite this: Prediction Frontier, read 27 Sept 2026 — https://predictionfrontier.com/markets#calibration-scorecard
Request the data feed
API access and bulk history for institutions.
Breaking and trending markets
The five fastest movers on Kalshi and on Polymarket.
Trending score = absolute 24-hour probability change x the market's volume z-score within its venue.
Kalshi cannot be scored because the required feed data is unavailable.
Will Norway win on 2026-09-24?
100.0%
- 24h
- +44.5pp
- Volume
- $13.4m
- Score
- 1.53
Why it moved
No editor note yet.
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-09-18?
0.1%
- 24h
- -40.5pp
- Volume
- $6.5m
- Score
- 0.41
Why it moved
No editor note yet.
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?
100.0%
- 24h
- +46.5pp
- Volume
- 5,986,677
- Score
- 0.38
Why it moved
No editor note yet.
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
0.1%
- 24h
- -5.0pp
- Volume
- $7.6m
- Score
- 0.07
Why it moved
No editor note yet.
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-26?
100.0%
- 24h
- +25.5pp
- Volume
- 4,400,082
- Score
- 0.06
Why it moved
No editor note yet.
Markets news
6 recent pieces of our reporting on the venues, the infrastructure and the numbers on this page.
Underdog Expands Prediction Market Surveillance Through Eventus Partnership
Eventus and Underdog collaborate on surveillance and compliance for prediction markets.
Genius Sports Launches Prediction.Com To Compare Event Contract Prices Across Prediction Markets
Genius Sports Limited launches Prediction.com, a consumer platform that lets users discover prediction markets, compare equivalent event contracts across multiple venues and follow how market probabilities change during live events.
Prediction Frontier Weekly Is Back. Here’s What We’ve Been Building.
Sports are still driving much of the activity. But the conversation is moving towards market infrastructure and whether prediction markets can support real institutional use.
Gemini, Apex Partner on Regulated Crypto Prediction Markets
Gemini and Apex Plan Partnership to Bring Crypto Event Contracts to Brokerage Customers
River Markets Raises $8.5M Seed Round to Build Prime Brokerage for Prediction Markets
River Markets has raised $8.5 million in seed funding led by Haun Ventures to build unified execution and risk infrastructure for professional prediction market traders.
Polymarket Ditched Single-Price Settlement for TWAP — Here's What Changed for Traders
On August 7, 2026, Polymarket's crypto up/down markets stopped resolving on a single price snapshot. Here's what a TWAP is, why Polymarket needed one, and what actually changed for anyone trading these markets.
Risk map
Exposures our desk follows, and the contracts that price them.
No risks have been published to the map yet. Entries appear here once an editor marks one live.
Pre-launch enquiry
Speak to us about quantifying an exposure
We work with organisations that want an exposure described in plain terms and set against the event contracts already referencing it. This is a pre-launch enquiry line: nothing can be placed and no premium is quoted at this stage.
Market categories
Categories are assigned to synced contracts by our editors.
Politics & elections
Election outcomes, leadership contests and legislative votes.
0 live contracts
Economics & macro
Rates, inflation, growth and central bank decisions.
0 live contracts
Crypto
Digital asset prices, protocol events and listings.
0 live contracts
Sports
Competitive fixtures, tournaments and season outcomes.
0 live contracts
Geopolitics & conflict
Conflict, treaties, sanctions and diplomacy.
0 live contracts
Tech & AI
Model releases, product launches and company milestones.
0 live contracts
Climate & energy
Emissions, temperature records and energy policy.
0 live contracts
Culture
Awards, entertainment and public figures.
0 live contracts
Health & science
Approvals, outbreaks and research milestones.
0 live contracts
Africa watch
Regulatory, political and economic events across Africa.
0 live contracts