Latest Prediction Market News
Regulation & Policy
Illinois court blocks gambling-law enforcement against event contracts
An October 30 preliminary injunction covers specified Illinois gambling enforcement against regulated swaps, including sports event contracts. Illinois has appealed.
Cboe targets November for company-KPI prediction contracts
Cboe says it has SEC approvals to list and clear company-KPI event contracts and now anticipates November, after an earlier October target.
ASIC questions retail prediction markets and offshore access
Australia’s ASIC questions whether retail prediction markets serve the public interest and reminds firms facilitating offshore access of their obligations.
CFTC sets December 15 roundtable on 24/7 derivatives trading
The CFTC will examine overnight trading, tokenisation, staffing and infrastructure at a public December roundtable, following an earlier request for comment.
Utah brings criminal charges against Kalshi and co-founders
Utah's case names KalshiEX, Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, citing undercover sports trades. Kalshi disputes the prosecution as political overreach.
Kalshi sues Missouri as Polymarket US challenges Louisiana
The exchanges filed separate federal complaints on October 27 seeking to block state gambling enforcement. Kalshi cites an October 30 compliance deadline.
Polymarket US to close Michigan sports positions by November 25
Polymarket US must close remaining Michigan sports positions by November 25 under a court-approved agreement announced by the state gambling regulator.
Rothera wins CFTC approval for Tesla KPI swap
The exchange plans contracts on company financial results, platform usage and production figures following approval of its first corporate KPI swap.
CFTC renews Polymarket settlement probe, Reuters reports
Reuters reports renewed CFTC scrutiny of Polymarket’s 2022 settlement. The original order concerned unregistered event-contract trading and a $1.4M penalty.
CFTC sues Utah to shield prediction markets and partners
A November 6 conference is set on the CFTC’s emergency request against Utah, as operators restrict prediction-market access. No injunction is granted by that order.
Kalshi sets initial $2,500 deposit limit for young adults
Kalshi adds an initial $2,500 monthly deposit limit for traders aged 18–20 and concentration alerts, as parent-safety guides address prediction-market risks.
Polymarket investigated dozens of midterm bets, NPR reports
Warren and Curtis seek election-trading safeguards from Kalshi and Polymarket, following NPR’s report on Polymarket investigations and alleged referrals.
New York court sets December hearing over Kalshi subpoenas
A signed October 29 order sets a December 14 hearing on New York’s Kalshi subpoena petition, with opposition papers due December 7.
Nasdaq seeks CFTC approval for inflation prediction markets
Nasdaq MRX Futures proposes headline and core CPI prediction markets paying $100 or $0. Its CFTC exchange application remains pending.
Polymarket goes to court in Netherlands over Dutch gambling ban
The company wants its event contracts supervised by the financial regulator. Dutch users stay blocked while the case runs. The financial rulebook carries a retail ban of its own.
Coinbase Adds CFTC-Registered Clearinghouse for Derivatives
Coinbase adds a CFTC-registered clearinghouse to its existing derivatives exchange and brokerage infrastructure.
Underdog Uses Eventus Validus for Market Surveillance
Underdog uses Eventus Validus to monitor its prediction-market exchange, with configurable alerts and surveillance designed to scale across its markets.
CFTC Mention-Market Advisory: Manipulation and Contract Rules
The CFTC’s mention-market advisory addresses manipulation risks, contract design and safeguards that designated contract markets should consider.
Gemini and Apex Plan Crypto Event Contracts for Brokerages
A Gemini–Apex letter of intent would bring crypto event contracts to brokerage customers, using Gemini’s exchange and clearing infrastructure.
CFTC Orders Kalshi to Keep Operating Amid New York Lawsuit
The CFTC has ordered KalshiEX to continue operating under federal derivatives rules as the exchange faces a legal challenge from New York.
STX Deploys Eventus Validus for Event-Contract Surveillance
STX has deployed Eventus Validus as it prepares an event-contract exchange and clearing platform, with its CFTC applications still pending at publication.
Kinetic Markets Selects Solidus Labs for FCM Surveillance
Kalshi’s FCM affiliate Kinetic Markets selects Solidus Labs for surveillance ahead of institutional margin accounts, subject to relevant regulatory approvals.
Rothera Deploys Eventus Validus for Event-Contract Surveillance
Rothera deploys Eventus Validus and Frank AI for surveillance as its event-contract exchange expands fully collateralised and margin products.
Kalshi Loses Preliminary Injunction Bid in New York Sports Event Contracts Case
Kalshi failed to win early court protection from New York’s gambling enforcement as its sports contracts lawsuit moves forward.
South Korea Gives Polymarket a Hearing in Gambling Review
South Korea’s media review body will hear Polymarket’s response before determining whether the crypto-based event trading platform warrants corrective action.
EU Regulator Warns Prediction Market Operators May Already Fall Under Binary Options Ban
The MiFID II authorisation requirement applies even to firms distributing qualifying event contracts solely to professional or institutional clients, closing off a retail-exclusion workaround.
Michigan’s June Kalshi Sports-Contract Order and Geofencing
Michigan’s 29 June 2026 order temporarily restricted Kalshi sports contracts, with geofencing requirements and a potential $120,000 daily non-compliance fine.
Prediction Markets Hit Record Volumes as Institutional Interest and Scrutiny Intensify
World Cup trading is driving unprecedented activity, while Cboe, Tradeweb and Meta bring new institutional and consumer attention to a sector facing sharper legal and conduct questions.
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